CCTR

The first stock on which we are initiating "coverage" is CCTR. There is ostensible value here given the aggressive push that MGMT is making to have the stock price more reflective of the companies revenues and earnings. My current prediction to kick-start the blog would have to be B/NA. This means I think the stock price will be higher than .053 in a month, but I do not have a basis for a longer term opinion.

The positives remain in that this company is fully reporting and the revenues appear to be real. They have a IR representative willing to pick up the phone and discuss non-private information (half of life is just showing up, and I have found plenty of IR contacts listed that either do not make themselves available or become aggressive when questioned about basic information that they themselves are touting).

On the other hand, the cliche of actions speak louder than words is a key issue here. Simple supply and demand of shares is causing the price to remain lower than the target of 30 cents suggested fair value. Now it is true that OTCBB stocks trade at a discount and that the "good stocks" usually suffer from this systematic discount. However, at the end of the day, stock prices are driven by earnings and expectation of earnings. The only real explanation for the low stock price is that people do not believe the filings or that there is a catch to the numbers, that they do not trust management to not dilute existing shareholders or make other decisions that will affect decrease earnings per share, or that just not enough dollars "know about" the opportunity.

My experience tells me though that dollars don't need a GPS to find a genuine opportunity.

***UPDATE 9/22 CCTR PPS responded favorably today to news about revenue and a new partnership. This PPS movement is consistent with our short term projections of B (for BULLISH) released on 9/15. That being said, we reiterate our B rating and believe that the PPS for CCTR will remain HIGHER than .053 by OCTOBER 15th (an arbitrary date one month after the initial post). On the other hand, we still do not have enough information to make a long term rating and will rely on the crowd (when we have one:). Stock prices are merely results of a real time, constantly updated election, where people have as many votes as they have dollars. So in this case, if PPS remains strong, it means that MGMT's campaign to raise awareness of the deals they are doing and the revenue/profits they are making is working. The stock will retain the strong PPS, however, only if the profits and profit projections are real and realized, respectively.

As PR becomes increasingly transparent and ubiquitous, we invite IR to make a public statement here. Many IR departments are already embracing new media, social networking, and web 2.0 by creating facebook groups and creating websites for their stocks. Those who go on the record to disseminate facts and corroborate on the record that the information they are relaeasing is not only factual but sincere and not misleading are likely to benefit and not suffer from the blanket discount applied to OTC stocks.


******UPDATED AGAIN--- nothing posted previously is ever deleted, removed, or censored

CCTR
posted at Sep 14, 2009 2:51:38 PM
Tags:

Post coming soon.



Public Relations does pick up the phone and is happy to discuss all publicly known information. The disconnect between the stock price and the company announcements however could be cause for concern. Sometimes there are justifiable reasons for the disconnect, creating an opportunity... other times the market knows best.







CCTR
Sep 22, 2009 3:01:57 PM
Tags:
The first stock on which we are initiating "coverage" is CCTR. (cctr.ob) There is ostensible value here given the aggressive push that MGMT is making to have the stock price more reflective of the companies revenues and earnings. My current prediction to kick-start the blog would have to be B/NA. This means I think the stock price will be higher than .053 in a month, but I am unsure about 12 months.

Positives are that this company is fully reporting and the revenues appear to be real. They have a IR representative willing to pick up the phone and discuss non-private information.

On the other hand, the cliche of actions speak louder than words is a key issue here. Simple supply and demand of shares is causing the price to remain lower than the target of 30 cents suggested fair value. Now it is true that OTCBB stocks trade at a discount and that the "good stocks" usually suffer from this systematic discount. However, at the end of the day, stock prices are driven by earnings and expectation of earnings. The only real explanation for the low stock price is that people do not believe the filings or that there is a catch to the numbers, that they do not trust management to not dilute existing shareholders or make other decisions that will affect decrease earnings per share, or that just not enough dollars "know about" the opportunity.

My experience tells me though that dollars don't need a GPS to find a genuine opportunity.

***UPDATE 9/22 CCTR (cctr.ob) PPS responded favorably today to news about revenue and a new partnership. This PPS movement is consistent with our short term projections of B (for BULLISH) released on 9/15. That being said, we reiterate our B rating and believe that the PPS for CCTR (cctr.ob) will remain HIGHER than .053 by OCTOBER 15th (an arbitrary date one month after the initial post). On the other hand, we still do not have enough information to make a long term rating and will rely on the crowd (when we have one:). Stock prices are merely results of a real time, constantly updated election, where people have as many votes as they have dollars. So in this case, if PPS remains strong, it means that MGMT's campaign to raise awareness of the deals they are doing and the revenue/profits they are making is working. The stock will retain the strong PPS, however, only if the profits and profit projections are real and realized, respectively.

As PR becomes increasingly transparent and ubiquitous, we invite IR to make a public statement here. Many IR departments are already embracing new media, social networking, and web 2.0 by creating facebook groups and creating websites for their stocks. Those who go on the record to disseminate facts and corroborate on the record that the information they are releasing is not only factual but sincere and not misleading are likely to benefit and not suffer from the blanket discount applied to OTC stocks.

CCTR dilution?
Sep 28, 2009 12:40:01 AM
Tags:
Upon information and belief, if there are many more than 20m shares outstanding (and revenue/profits do not increase proportionally) reported in the next company filing, management could be in breach of certain duties of care, reasonably owed to shareholders. I hope they are not diluting the shares and do not believe that they would be during this aggressive campaign to tell the public about the fair value projections of their stock. Since this projection is PER SHARE and not just a total valuation of the company, I believe that a material increase in shares without the commensurate rise in revs and profits would absolutely violate the company's duty.


Re: CCTR dilution?
Sep 29, 2009 11:24:10 AM
Tags: cctr, cctr.ob, corporate buybacks, otcbb dilution

WEB-CAST REPORT CARD

* Acknowledgment of WSJ potentially misleading headline A+++
* Theoretical 100m share count acknowledged in the presentation (and reiteration of fair value accordingly A+
* Acknowledge the redundancy of press releases A+
* Justification of redundancy A -- big companies do advertise, it's true and there is nothing wrong with truthful redundancy to get in front of the new investors as long as it doesn't remove credibility with existing investors
* Justification of possible dilution B -- companies need to be careful about issuing more shares, especially when they feel they are undervalued - BUT as long as the filings are transparent about whom is receiving the new shares and what the terms are - it's true that companies need cash to grow and some dilution is expected at this level of business
* Lack addressing corporate buyback or at least MGMT open market purchases. D-I understand that cash flows and other factors limit the company's ability to purchase shares (especially considering that they may have to issue shares not only to preserve cash but to raise more)... HOWEVER, if this stock is 600% undervalued, I would like to see the management making some personal investment in the stock. AFAIK, it is perfectly legal as long as it is reported and the purchases are made during certain windows. I believe they just need to file a form 5 or something. This gesture does as much for public relations, investor moral and confidence as any PR could do- not to mention direct strength to the PPS with the purchase of the shares themselves.

Will post separately about the laws around management stock purchases and sales.



Upon information and belief, if there are many more than 20m shares outstanding (and revenue/profits do not increase proportionally) reported in the next company filing, management could be in breach of certain duties of care, reasonably owed to shareholders. I hope they are not diluting the shares and do not believe that they would be during this aggressive campaign to tell the public about the fair value projections of their stock. Since this projection is PER SHARE and not just a total valuation of the company, I believe that a material increase in shares without the commensurate rise in revs and profits would absolutely violate the company's duty.




NATIONAL EXCHANGE LISTING (post in progress- contributions welcome)
Oct 19, 2009 9:42:03 PM
Tags: cctr, cctr.ob, corporate buybacks, otcbb dilution, stock exchanges, OTCBB
China Crescent Enterprises, Inc. Set Sights on 2010 $100 Million Profitable Revenue Target and National Exchange Listing Strategy After Achieving $66 Million Milestone

Taken literally, the above headline when isolated for the national exchange listing, reads only that they have their siights set on a strategy not necessarily a listing. That being said, let's look at all the national stock exchanges in the United States and their listing requirements-- as CCTR has clearly planted a seed for investors to reasonably consider the POSSIBILITY of the company being in a position to meet, or come close to meeting these requirements within a reasonable time period. (list from WIKIPEDIA)

* NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc. (formerly the Boston Stock Exchange) INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE
* Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)
* Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) - Owned and operated by CME Group Inc.
* Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - Owned and operated by CME Group Inc.
* Chicago Stock Exchange (CHX)
* International Securities Exchange (ISE)
o ISE Options Exchange
o ISE Stock Exchange
* Miami Stock Exchange (MS4X)[2]
* NASDAQ Stock Market, The - Owned and operated by NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (formerly The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc.).
o NASDAQ Market Tiers
+ NASDAQ Global Select Market
+ NASDAQ Global Market (formerly NASDAQ National Market) NASDAQ Stock Exchange: To be listed on the NASDAQ a company must have issued at least 1.25 million shares of stock worth at least $70 million and must have earned more than $11 million over the last three years.[4]
+ NASDAQ Capital Market (formerly NASDAQ Small Cap Market) $4 initial bid price 15m minimum market value of publicly held shares ,$1 continued bid price
o NASDAQ Subsidiaries
+ Nasdaq OMX PHLX - Formerly Philadelphia Stock Exchange, Inc. (Philadelphia Stock Exchange, (PHLX))
* National Stock Exchange (NSX)
* New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) - Owned and operated by NYSE Euronext.
o NYSE Alternext US - Organized as NYSE Alternext US LLC (formerly American Stock Exchange LLC (American Stock Exchange, AMEX)) New York Stock Exchange: To be listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) a company must have issued at least a million shares of stock worth $100 million and must have earned more than $10 million over the last three years.[5]
o NYSE Arca (formerly Pacific Exchange)
* BATS Exchange


CCTR earnings expectations
Oct 21, 2009 8:43:47 AM
Tags: cctr, cctr.ob, corporate buybacks, otcbb dilution, earnings

this coming quarter (to be released on or around Nov 15th) seem to matter only from a shares outstanding POV. The year end report, which we won't see until around late March, is more telling- here's what I think



If they already reported earnings of 1.1m for the first half of the year and continually say that the second half of the year is strongest and that they are going to have a record year, then I think it is safe to bet on 2.5m+ of profits for the year. Even with a share count of 100m that they seem to be bracing everyone for, that would be 2.5 cents per share. Now assuming that the revenues are sustainable and even scalable, and not coming from selling stock alone (which to me would be misleading investors given the campaign) that should garner at least a 5x multiple and the stock could still hit 10-15 cents on a report like that.
But like I said, that's not until April and it assumes that sharecount stays under 100m.

Re: CCTR earnings expectations
Oct 23, 2009 7:56:06 PM
Tags: cctr, cctr.ob, corporate buybacks, otcbb dilution, earnings, otcbb valuations

upon information and belief, the net income in 2008 was just
over $638K-- with net income for the first half of 2009 at 1.1m and second half being stronger than the first, I really think they have to report 2.5m for 2009 with less than 100m s/o and this stock SHOULD (not will) pop a little bit:) but again, we won't know the full year numbers for quite a while-- that said, if they 3q has at least 500k in net income and ~50m shares out or less, we could see 10 cents.... i think they need 3cents a share for a reasonable "fair value" 30 cent pps



this coming quarter (to be released on or around Nov 15th) seem to matter only from a shares outstanding POV. The year end report, which we won't see until around late March, is more telling- here's what I think



If they already reported earnings of 1.1m for the first half of the year and continually say that the second half of the year is strongest and that they are going to have a record year, then I think it is safe to bet on 2.5m+ of profits for the year. Even with a share count of 100m that they seem to be bracing everyone for, that would be 2.5 cents per share. Now assuming that the revenues are sustainable and even scalable, and not coming from selling stock alone (which to me would be misleading investors given the campaign) that should garner at least a 5x multiple and the stock could still hit 10-15 cents on a report like that.
But like I said, that's not until April and it assumes that share count stays under 100m.


Re: Re: CCTR earnings expectations
Oct 26, 2009 9:26:36 AM
Tags: cctr, cctr.ob, corporate buybacks, OTCBB dilution, earnings, otcbb valuations

net income last year was about 600k- net income for just the first half of this year was 1.1m... even if they don't earn another dollar this year, and shares out are less than 100m that would be 1 cent per share in earnings with 100% growth.. unless there is really something materially wrong with the earnings quality, or someone knows for a fact that the growth is going to hit a wall or stop altogether, i think the pps should start to reflect something in the 5-10x multiple range of pps (but mgmt will have to continue to earn its credibility)



upon information and belief, the net income in 2008 was just
over $638K-- with net income for the first half of 2009 at 1.1m and second half being stronger than the first, I really think they have to report 2.5m for 2009 with less than 100m s/o and this stock SHOULD (not will) pop a little bit:) but again, we won't know the full year numbers for quite a while-- that said, if they 3q has at least 500k in net income and ~50m shares out or less, we could see 10 cents.... i think they need 3cents a share for a reasonable "fair value" 30 cent pps



this coming quarter (to be released on or around Nov 15th) seem to matter only from a shares outstanding POV. The year end report, which we won't see until around late March, is more telling- here's what I think



If they already reported earnings of 1.1m for the first half of the year and continually say that the second half of the year is strongest and that they are going to have a record year, then I think it is safe to bet on 2.5m+ of profits for the year. Even with a share count of 100m that they seem to be bracing everyone for, that would be 2.5 cents per share. Now assuming that the revenues are sustainable and even scalable, and not coming from selling stock alone (which to me would be misleading investors given the campaign) that should garner at least a 5x multiple and the stock could still hit 10-15 cents on a report like that.
But like I said, that's not until April and it assumes that sharecount stays under 100m.